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what exactly is WAR telling us?
dWAR does mean defensive Win Above Replacement doesn't it? So if JD Drew had a -2 dWAR his first two years, that means a Pawtucket AAAA scrub would have been two wins better in RF right? I said it was absurd, and my reasoning was 'my eyes'. Which since I saw nearly every game, I will trust. He had great jumps, great routes, and a strong arm.
There once was a major-league scout
Who said, "What's trouble with Trout?
His Rfield and dWAR
Can make a guy sore
Right down to the very last out!"
What is WAR telling us? It's telling us that defensive value fluctuates from one season to the next. How surprising.
Which since I saw nearly every game, I will trust. He had great jumps, great routes, and a strong arm.
I remember a play earlier this year when a ball that may had stayed in the park went over the wall for a HR when Trout tried to catch it. I wonder how many points agains his dWAR that one particular play cost.
Here's something I don't get about WAR. Most hardcore baseball fans would agree defensive metrics taken from an individual season can be misleading. And yet, doesn't WAR heavily factor those same samples? And isn't WAR discussed as some sort of reliable barometer as a player's value in an individual season? But if the defensive metrics fluctuate to such a degree, what exactly is WAR telling us?
WAR is telling us it's so terribly flawed that it incorporate what players actually did, instead of what we know they should have done.
Trout had four plays that BIS scored home-run robberies last season. In their world, those are very important plays. As BIS founder John Dewan has explained, this is the one play in which a player literally saves a run, no matter what the situation.
Those four plays accounted for 7.4 of Trout's runs saved last season -- basically one-third of his total.
Haven't some pretty enlightened folks said it takes two or three years of defensive data to equal one year of hitting data? Maybe that doesn't apply anymore, but I think John Dewan said something similar in one of the Fielding Bibles.
How does BIS come up with that figure? Obviously a robbery saves a run plus there is the factor for the difference in outs. One out doesn't account for .85 of a run, does it? What factor does BIS apply to 'home run robberies"? If the difference is based on context, it doesn't seem right when advanced offensive stats remove context.
Sure, in terms of predictive value, or getting at a player's true talent level, you need a 3 year sample. But what he's done is what he's done. If Trout hit .230 in is first two months of the season, nobody would be saying "what's the matter with batting average?!" They'd be saying, "well, that was a poor couple of months, and maybe he's not quite as good as we thought he was, but he'll probably be substantially better than this going forward."
Trout had four plays that BIS scored home-run robberies last season. In their world, those are very important plays.
Is this sarcasm? I don't think WAR is at the point where it would treat this as anything other than a ball hit into one of Trout's zone (assuming it didn't treat it as a HR, or likely HR), and compare his failure to turn that ball into an out against other fielder's success on balls hit into that particular zone. I don't think he gets an extra black mark for the ball becoming a HR.
It now *does not* mean relative to a AAAA player?
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