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If a catcher actually threatens to really deserve a MVP, he's very very likely to get it. Most MVP catchers have not deserved it, by the numbers, but when they are close to the lead, they win.
Not necessarily. The 1997 voters voted overwhelmingly for Larry Walker over Mike Piazza.
It's obviously going to McCutchen, right?
Separately, I was intrigued by the 100 hits at home already and thought the guy must have a pretty large split. And indeed he does: .373/.439/.571/1.010 at home and .261/.335/.399/.735 on the road.
Carpenter is having a great year. Not too many corner IF-to-2B conversions work at all, much less work to the extent that the guy is the best 2B in the league.
The Cardinals seems to specialize in these guys: John Jay, David Freese, Allen Craig and now Carpenter. Guys who come from nowhere, put up big numbers for a year or two, and then fade off. I am sort of skeptical about any of these guys for the Cardinals at this point.
Seems more like Jay and Freese are having mild down years, while Craig and Carpenter haven't actually "faded off."
David Freese last year: 3.8 WAR. David Freese this year: -0.3 WAR.
Jon Jay last year: 3.4 WAR. Jon Jay this year: 0.8 WAR.
OPS+ Freese Jay2009 121 n/a2010 109 1132011 118 1122012 129 1132013 102 99
I mean, maybe Carpenter is the rarest of breeds: a late-blooming middle infield star. I'm just highly skeptical.
OTTOMH, Chase Utley, Ben Zobrist, Brian Roberts, Dan Uggla. Doesn't seem so rare.
A big part of that is that Freese's rField went from +2 to -13, and Jay's went from +2 to -11.
Utley had his first great year at 26, and was great in the minors the two years before that in AAA.
My whole point is that most of Carpenter's value comes from: a) a somewhat high BA, and b) a surprising level of defense at a brand new position. I'd expect him to regress on both of those points moving forward.
Utley's two great AAA years (age 24 and 25): OPS .907 and .880
Carpenter's last two full minor league seasons (age 24 and 25): OPS .889 (high A and AA), 880 (AAA)
Utley came up at age 26 and put up a .915 OPS. Carpenter came up at at age 26, played as a super-sub, and put up a .828 OPS. Sure, Utley is better, but I'm not seeing the dramatic difference you seem to be seeing.
His BA this year is .316. Last year he hit .294. His BABIP in these two years was .353 and .346, respectively. He was a .300 hitter in the minors. Why, exactly, do you expect his BA to regress?
Because generally guys who put up BABIPs like that hit for more power
34. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: September 09, 2013 at 04:53 PM (#4537604)
I'm not ready to rule Brandon Phillips out just yet.
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