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Following the aggressive nature of their GM, Omar Minaya, the Mets yesterday actively moved on their key issue - the rotation - by all but completing a deal to retain Orlando Hernandez while beginning to make inroads in the pursuit of Barry Zito and Vicente Padilla.
Hernandez is close to inking a two-year deal worth about $6 million.
Barry Zito is going to be a very rich man. Talk about being the right man in the right place at the right time.
Fearless prediction: El Duque averages 2.5 DL stints per season as a Met.
I don't think so, levski: he likes New York a lot better than Phoenix...
El Duque at $3MM per year is a bargain.
Hmmm, B-R.com has these numbers for Zito's ERA+: 2004 - 105; 2005 - 116; 2006 - 116.
It's just hard for me to wrap my brain around the "new math" where a slightly above league average innings eater is worth 15 million a year.
Look, I don't believe in Zito at all. I don't buy this "he induces infield fly balls" stuff, and quoting his ERA+ or his VORP is downright silly consider the nature of the concerns being voiced about him. At the same time, with the move to the NL, Zito profiles as a 3.6 or so ERA guy, and he'll give you 220 innings of that.
SEASON TEAM OUTS GB/FB ERA RA FIP XFIP
2000 Oak 278 0.82 2.72 2.91 3.88
2001 Oak 643 0.85 3.49 3.86 3.68
2002 Oak 688 0.74 2.75 3.10 4.11
2003 Oak 695 0.89 3.30 3.81 4.22
2004 Oak 639 0.85 4.48 4.90 4.65 5.04
2005 Oak 685 1.05 3.86 4.18 4.52 4.61
2006 Oak 663 0.89 3.83 4.03 4.94 5.46
4291 0.87 3.55 3.90 4.32
Look, I don't believe in Zito at all. I don't buy this "he induces infield fly balls" stuff
Orlando Hernandez didn't get a chance to pitch for the New York Mets in the postseason after suffering a torn calf muscle on the eve of Game 1 of the NLDS. But he might get another shot.
FOXSports.com has learned that Hernandez has agreed to a two-year, $12 million deal to return to the Mets.
Hernandez started the 2006 season in Arizona, where the 37-year-old struggled. But after being acquired by the Mets, he started 20 games for New York, going 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA.
You can call it silly, but Zito has virtually always bested his dERA by a significant margin. Could be chance, but maybe not. It's certainly not preposterous to suggest that he may be doing it on purpose.
Basically, if you think Zito will pitch to his FIP going forward, you should not be forecasting a 3.60 ERA in the NL. If you think his career thus far is evidence that he'll continue to outpitch his FIP (outside of Oakland's defense and park), then why not cite his past value stats?
What is there not to believe? This past season he was 5th in the AL in infield flies per fly balls, while he also posted an
The ability to achieve a certain rate of IF/F has been shown to be repeatable, not just for Zito, but for everyone and further 99% of infield flies get turned into outs.
The market does look like it's going to be crazy as Mark Derosa just got a 3y/13m dollar deal and he can only hit lefties.
I do not believe Zito will pitch significantly past his FIP going forward(FIP does systematically underrate lefties however). What I do think is that the NL is sufficiently weaker than the move to the NL will cut that FIP/ERA drastically. It's pretty simple really.
If Zito's ERA equaled his FIP the last three years, these would have been his ERA+s:
Even if IF/F is heavily regressed toward the mean, he still allows lots of FB, so he'll allow more IF than you'd expect. So his BABIP is lower than you'd expect
Maybe he pitches better with guys on base, like glavine does.
Danny, you need to cut a good chunk off his FIP because of the lefty issue. This is something that DIPS 2.0 did, but that FIP does not.
MGL's research on the AL-NL differential however does indicate a massive difference in the quality of the hitting between the two leagues.
It's been shown that IF/F rate beyond what we'd expect from GB/FB ratios are repeatable? By whom? Got a link?
The number of IF pop flies and to some extent OF pop flies, as a percentage of all non-GB BIP, are somewhat a unique function of the pitcher as well. In other words, good pitchers may tend to get more pop files than bad pitchers, as a percentage of their total non-ground ball balls in play.
[/code]Pitcher VORP IPSantana 323.6 960Halladay 281.9 1000Oswalt 278.1 1059.7Martinez 278.0 952.7Hudson 256.7 1077.3Zito 256.3 1123.3Clemens 253.5 930.6Schmidt 237.6 1003.3Schilling 235.3 951.3C Zambrano 225.7 969.3[code]
Nobody mentioned anything about the difference between THT and BB-Ref ERA+ numbers. How did they come up with such different numbers?
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