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What killed his HOF chances? 194 wins is a big one
Rk Player IP ERA+ WAR From To W W-L%1 Dizzy Dean 1967.1 131 42.7 1930 1947 150 .6442 Sandy Koufax 2324.1 131 53.2 1955 1966 165 .6553 Addie Joss 2327.0 142 45.8 1902 1910 160 .6234 Lefty Gomez 2503.0 125 43.0 1930 1943 189 .6495 Bob Lemon 2850.0 119 37.3 1946 1958 207 .6186 Jack Chesbro 2896.2 111 41.3 1899 1909 198 .600
Player W W-L% ERA+ WAR IP From ToTommy John 288 .555 111 62.2 4710.1 1963 1989Jim Kaat 283 .544 108 45.4 4530.1 1959 1983Mike Mussina 270 .638 123 82.7 3562.2 1991 2008Jack Morris 254 .577 105 43.9 3824.0 1977 1994Dennis Martinez 245 .559 106 49.4 3999.2 1976 1998David Wells 239 .604 108 53.5 3439.0 1987 2007Luis Tiant 229 .571 114 65.9 3486.1 1964 1982Mel Harder 223 .545 113 48.1 3426.1 1928 1947Hooks Dauss 223 .551 102 35.1 3390.2 1912 1926Pedro Martinez 219 .687 154 85.9 2827.1 1992 2009Kenny Rogers 219 .584 107 51.1 3302.2 1989 2008Earl Whitehill 218 .541 100 36.4 3564.2 1923 1939Freddie Fitzsimmons 217 .598 112 33.7 3223.2 1925 1943Curt Schilling 216 .597 127 80.7 3261.0 1988 2007Wilbur Cooper 216 .548 116 49.0 3480.0 1912 1926
So, what are the pluses for HOF voters (who pay zero attention to JAWS and the like)?
Well the way the Braves are going, Hudson will get about 23 more wins this year, and if you figure that the team will be even better next year since it's such a young team, figure another 30 for 2014, if they bring him back. Then another couple years puts him in the upper 200s. Book it.
Zito has been worse than mediocre since leaving Oakland. 91 ERA+ in 1,022 IP
Starting pitching average is around 90...era+ is pulled up by the superior numbers that relievers put up. The average number three (or pitcher 60-90th best starting pitchers in baseball) put up about a 90 era+...
Fangraphs says for 2012 starters had a 104 ERA- and relievers a 91 ERA-. Are you talking about a different time period or something else?
He's using ERA-, not ERA+.
The HOF will be tough on pitchers who started around 2000 I suspect. Active win leaders are Pettitte, Halladay and Hudson with 200+, Sabathia 194, 3 in the 170's (Buehlre, Lowe, Colon), Zito at 162, and Freddie Garcia at 152. Outside of Pettitte, Halladay and Sabathia were any of them viewed at any time as elite? Hudson & Zito were close, Colon had his Cy Young year (122 ERA+ but led in wins). Generally speaking though it appears we have another 70/80's crew - where Jack Morris and Dave Stieb were the class of the group with no one really standing out in both career length (Morris) and peak (Stieb).
Pettitte would have been a lock without the PED use imo, but with that he will be held back I suspect. Halladay is clean so far and viewed as a true ace (2 Cy Youngs, twice in 2nd place, 7 times getting votes) with a couple of big highlights (no hitter in playoffs, perfect game in regular season). I see Halladay as an easy HOF'er, Pettitte as likely once the PED craziness wears off (odds are it'll calm down by the time he is eligible) with Hudson/Sabathia having shots if they can stick around for 5 more years of 10+ wins (ie: get close or over 250 for wins).
Justin Verlander is the only other guy with 100+ wins who catches my eye as possibly having a HOF career (126 wins at 30, signed for another 7 years after this one so 200+ is very likely unless he gets seriously hurt at some point). That'll help guys like Hudson, Zito and Sabathia as by the time they are qualified for the HOF most of the greats of the last era will be gone from the ballot (with any luck) and unless a new wave of 'wow' shows up they'll look like the best of the batch to some voters.
The big one is Win Percentage, he's in the top 30 of all time and likely to stay there. He's never had a losing season. I think the stat is anyone eligible with 200+ wins and more than 100 games over .500 is in. Hudson has a pretty good shot at that (95 over right now).
Player IP GS ERA+ WChristy Mathewson 2275.0 267 136 174Don Drysdale 1945.0 262 124 123Hal Newhouser 1894.0 236 139 131Fernando Valenzuela 1805.2 234 116 113Dwight Gooden 1713.2 236 122 132Vida Blue 1666.0 224 121 110Felix Hernandez 1620.1 238 127 98Frank Tanana 1615.1 218 118 102Sam McDowell 1590.0 225 117 89CC Sabathia 1406.1 219 115 100
Pettitte would have been a lock without the PED use imo,...
One factor that I am pretty sure is going to come into play sometime (and perhaps already has) is how many people you want in your Hall of Fame. Do you want the same percentage of the total players in each decade to go in the Hall, or do you want the same raw number of players in the Hall from the 2010s as from the 1910s? This is not an easy question. There are a lot of tradeoffs involved. The Hall of Merit is struggling with this issue now, and has been at least since I started voting there about five years ago. Hudson is one of the guys whose candidacy rests entirely on what decision the voters make. If they decide to limit the raw numbers from current years, Hudson will not go in. If they try to match the percentage of early players who made the Hall, he might very well get there. - Brock Hanke
Schilling - hard to say, should be in
Smoltz - safe bet to be in well before Pettite is on a ballot
I agree with most of your analysis.... I just can't see how voters would be able to separate Smoltz from Schilling, with Smoltz being the one going in.
Really? It's pretty simple: Smotlz pitching more innings, had a lower ERA, and also has 150 saves from three years as a dominant closer. They had the same number of wins.
I'm trying to think like HOF voters... they tend to look at total wins, dominance, major highlights, and storyline.
That means, without PEDs and Clemens, he would likely be the best pitcher on the ballot for quite a few years if he didn't get in quickly and that is a major asset to getting voted in.
Player IP GS ERA+ WTed Lyons 4161.0 484 118 260Red Faber 4086.2 483 119 254Vic Willis 3996.0 471 117 249Bob Feller 3827.0 484 122 266Jim Bunning 3760.1 519 115 224Luis Tiant 3486.1 484 114 229Don Drysdale 3432.0 465 121 209Vida Blue 3343.1 473 108 209Chuck Finley 3197.1 467 115 200Milt Pappas 3186.0 465 110 209Andy Pettitte 3153.0 494 118 248Orel Hershiser 3130.1 466 112 204
Guys just don't pitch as many innings per start anymore; should that matter, though?
True, they don't have as much value as individual starters used to; but individual starters used to have a crazily disproportionate amount of value, compared to their teammates.
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