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Fister is a very good pitcher, and 29 is not old.
After this trade, he's shutting himself down in case the Nats need to make trades in 2017.
We'll see if he's right. He's right a lot.
I would have preferred an intact rotation from 2013, but if there was some motivation to trade a starting pitcher, I think it made sense to trade Fister.
Porcello more likely to improve and Fister more likely to decline.
The ALCS showed the Tigers that SP'ing alone is not enough. A better bullpen, a more balanced offense, and better defense can offset the loss of Fister and then some.
Well the 'more' is that apparently Dombrowski and his crew thinks that Ray is going to be good. We'll see if he's right. He's right a lot.
9. Something hopeful about how this frees up money, oh so much money, to go after high priced FA.
The BA 2013 handbook says 87-91, bumping 92-93 on occasion. So not particularly hard, but lefties don't need to be quite as quick as righties, I understand. Of course, maybe he added a tick or two this season.
What is the reason he's being treated as if he's the best GM the game has to offer, such that people feel the need to come up with irrational justifications for a bad deal?
Are you telling me the Chicago Cubs couldn't have given the Tigers a better package? Lombardozzi is better than Barney or something?
I'm having a hard time coming up with a trading partner that would make sense for the Tigers AND would have something better/would offer something better than Ray/Krol/Lombardozzi
More pertinently, the last few times he's traded established players for prospects, those prospects have panned out, sometimes in a huge way (Granderson & E Jackson got them Austin Jackson/Max Scherzer/Phil Coke; Jeff Weaver got them Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman; Mark Redman got them Nate Robertson.)
It comes down to what you think of Krol and Ray.
I would like to see the history of deals which our community thought were ridiculously one-sided. My feeling is that the idiot side usually comes out better than we expected.
because a one-year jump from a more-or-less average BABIP to an extremely high one, like Fister's in 2013, can be a warning sign of a less-than-healthy arm.
I would like to see the history of deals which our community thought were ridiculously one-sided.
It also comes down to what you think of Fister going forward.
The Tigers have probably hit the limit of the payroll they can afford, and so must trade away salaries in order to sign expensive new players.
The Tigers didn't get a career crisis return; they got Washington's 5th best prospect and another young, good arm. And a decent bench guy.
But if so it's typically coupled with a significantly decreased K/BB ratio. That didn't happen here. Which suggests that the higher BABIP was a fluke.
The Tigers didn't get a career crisis return; they got Washington's 5th best prospect
Well, Fister *has* gone from 3.95 K/BB two years ago to 3.61 in 2013; the walk rate is so low to begin with that it takes a huge drop in K's to move the needle very much.
madvillain - I don't like the trade but I think Ray's better than a B- prospect with a #4 SP upside.
No-one likes it, even here. Mostly there's an attempt to understand why it happened.
'Mike Rizzo has pictures of Dave Dombrowski with a goat' just doesn't work in that respect. Not even with Ray DP, who appears to be in the 'This proves DD is stupid like all the other GMs' camp. Also known as Camp Joe Sheehan.
Fister's strikeout rate went down, from 1 batter every 4.9 PA to 1 every 5.5. His hit-allowed rate went up, from 1 every 4.3 PA to 1 every 3.8. (And that's with his HR rate going down.) Yes, Detroit had a bad defense - but the same players, more or less, were there in 2012 as were there in 2013. I obviously don't know whether this is a one-year aberration or not; not knowing the pitcher at all but looking just at the numbers I'd be suspicious that there might be an injury lurking in there, because a one-year jump from a more-or-less average BABIP to an extremely high one, like Fister's in 2013, can be a warning sign of a less-than-healthy arm.
Aren't the playoffs just a glorified exhibition with random outcomes?
"The one I remember most is the trade JP Ricciardi made, trading Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty in '03. Jays fans thought the Twins needed to have their heads examined and the trade was an example of the power of statistical analysis. So what happened? Steward earned 2.6 WAR for the Twins in 65 games and finished 4th in the MVP vote, while Kielty couldn't even bat a 90 OPS+."
Dombrowski obviously thinks less of Fister than most saberites (and Fister isn't as good as Cameron or you think) (*), and thinks more of Ray than most observers. Since he knows way more about baseball talent than you or Cameron, and has proven so for 25 years, I'll go with his judgment.
Question for Mike Emeigh, do you think it's physically possible for a team to make a mistake? Because I don't think I've ever seen you pan a move.
Fluky BABIPs are almost always uncommonly low ones; it's less common for an established healthy pitcher to have an unusually high one. The assertion that a .330 BABIP is just as much of a fluke as is a .260 BABIP drives people to select the Glendon Ruschs of the world in their fantasy drafts - and to pay for it later.
so I will assume DD is not derelict in his duty, that he did his due diligence, and this was what he could get.
Fister has been good, but he is a Jim DeShaies big guy who doesn't throw hard type. They don't generally age all that well.
Nah, not really, you were right the first time. He's a 29 year old junkballer with a falling K rate and a decaying H/9 rate. It's pretty clear that his stuff isn't quite as tricky as it was at 27 and 28. Could just be a fluke, but there's no reason to have issue with anyone who thinks it isn't, particularly when it's their job to figure out whether it is or isn't.
It happened because Dombrowski likes Ray and because he wants to use the $7 mil or so per year (*) on other assets. It's no more complicated than that. Mr. I shoved Prince Fielder down DD's throat, which took the payroll a little high and made the team a bit unbalanced, and DD's unwinding that as best he can.
The only idiots here are the ones who see fit to apply that tag to one of 30 people in the world hand-picked to be MLB GMs. None of them are "idiots" nor anything close.
The only idiots here are the ones who see fit to apply that tag to one of 30 people in the world hand-picked to be MLB GMs. None of them are "idiots" nor anything close. Some are better than others, and because it is a zero-sum incredibly hard business, some of them look foolish. Even the best GMs make bad moves, and the worst ones make good moves. And none of us could do any better.
Are you kidding me? I'm pretty sure most people here would have the ability not to trade Doug Fister away for crap.
So he used the money saved to sign Joe Nathan. In what universe is Joe Nathan more valuable than Fister?
Nathan was ridiculously good last year, and the Tigers have 5 other above-average starters but a lousy bullpen.
The notion that the geniuses who post here know much more than Dave Dombrowski does about the abilities of Doug Fister (or of any other baseball player, actually) is humorous, in a pathetic and self-important sort of way.
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