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Good base running is of limited value when you don't get on base.
Yup, and if Shane Victorino doesn't get on base, he won't be of much value at all. However, his 5/4/3 projected OBP is .333, which is just about exactly league average for a right fielder in Fenway Park.
Shane Victorino, last 3 seasons against RHP: .244/.311/.387. He doesn't get on base against RHP. You know, those pitchers you face the majority of the time.
And for some reason, Napoli last year struggled against lefties (.215/.338/.446 vs a career split of .275/.384/.535).
Platoon splits need both large sample sizes and significant regression to be predictive. Cutting a season up into 150 PA chunks is a guaranteed way to produce weird, random results.
450 PA with a humongous BABIP split. Not something I'd put much faith in.
Those are his combined numbers against RHP over the last three seasons combined. So no, not 450 unlucky PA, but rather 1231 ABs of complete #### hitting.
Meanwhile the Rays trade nothing of substance ans acquire Yunel Escobar to fill their hole at SS.
I get being concerned about Victorino's splits, but it's still a lot for me to take those numbers at face value.
To try to imbue some positivity, I will point out that the Rays also have one James Loney at the top of their 1B depth chart.
Considering they turned Casey Kotchman and Jeff Keppinger in 127 OPS+ players for a year, something tells me they know what they're doing with Loney.
Year R/G BA OBP SLG OPS2012 4.32 .255 .319 .405 .7242011 4.28 .255 .321 .399 .7202010 4.38 .257 .325 .403 .7282009 4.61 .262 .333 .418 .7512008 4.65 .264 .333 .416 .7492007 4.80 .268 .336 .423 .7582006 4.86 .269 .337 .432 .7682005 4.59 .264 .330 .419 .7492004 4.81 .266 .335 .428 .7632003 4.73 .264 .333 .422 .7552002 4.62 .261 .331 .417 .7482001 4.78 .264 .332 .427 .7592000 5.14 .270 .345 .437 .7821999 5.08 .271 .345 .434 .778
I think you guys are stuck in the early 2000's mode of evaluating hitting and salary. We've dropped 60 points of OPS since then and it doesn't appear to be coming back. 3yr $39m is damn near what you would expect to pay a league average player on the FA market.
There has been some talk that Victorino played through a minor wrist injury last year. If that's true and he's healthy in the future, this deal might look a good bit better.
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