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Some of the submitted comments were hilarious. There were a disturbing number of people that were angry that Domonic Brown wasn't being taken. Probably 200-300 comments just from Brown fans.
well, considering that he and jason heyward have been linked to each other since they were both top 5 prospects and considering that heyward was taken 15th in this exercise and that domonic brown's slugging percentage is roughly equivalent to heyward's total OPS, i'd say there's reasonable enough cause for disagreement.
also, for as much as everyone talked about brown being a failed prospect coming into this season, he did have a 94 OPS+ over the previous 2 years, so it's not as if he was mario mendoza out there.
Heyward is two years younger.
if you buy into him and think he's a lock to put up a .900 OPS for the next decade
Here's their 2012 Franchise Draft and their 2011 Franchise Draft.
Umm, is anyone a lock to put a .900 OPS for the next decade?
Edit: nvm, didn't see who the poster was, par for the course.
Until you reach the upper 30s, I think that the age of pitchers should basically be ignored. A 29 year old is just as likely to be a horse for the next decade as a 22 year old.
There's a bias in the list towards players for whom we have less data.
i don't even know who you are.
anyway, my statement was conditional. i didn't say that brown was a lock, i said that if he was a lock, then the difference in age doesn't matter.
I didn't know having to know someone actually meant anything. And of course, your condition is preposterous. What players are a lock to put up a .900 OPS for a decade? You would see how ridiculous this condition was if the player didn't wear a uniform that had a "Phillies" on it.
This is wrong. You are much more likely to get substantial value from a 22-yr-old. Number of pitchers generating at least 30 WAR, age 29-38: 45. Age 22-31: 80. Producing 40+ WAR: age 29-38: 18, age 22-31: 28. (Post-WWII)
Still, Heyward had a better minor league record and has shown a much higher peak.
So the age of Dominic Brown vs Jason Heyward may be highly relevant, whereas the age of Matt Harvey vs Yu Darvish is less so. At least I think.
I agree there is probably less upside on a 22-yr-old pitcher than a 22-yr-old position player. However, great 22 yr-old hitters have much less upside than people imagine -- most are already close to their peak.
However, great 22 yr-old hitters have much less upside than people imagine -- most are already close to their peak.
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