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Not to derail the thread, but why Peña as a backup for Avila? Wouldn't a lefty masher like Shoppach have made more sense?
Because teams don't use a backup catcher as a platoon partner. If you set up a platoon, situation that means the other team controls when you play your catchers, and teams don't want that. They prefer to have the backup catcher to be the caddy for one of the pitchers so that you get your starter a semi-consistent day off every fifth day and your backup gets a good feel for that fifth starter.
I'm not seeing how this is better than going with Porcello and signing Soriano.
2002-2004: Livan Hernandez, Kip Wells, Matt Clement, Odalis Perez, Javier Vazquez, Jarrod Washburn, Rodrigo Lopez, Mark Redman, Freddy Garcia, Sidney Ponson
2005-2007: Dan Haren, Brad Penny, Chris Young, AJ Burnett, Barry Zito, Javier Vazquez, Joe Blanton
They also have Smyly. The rumors have been they plan to trade Porcello.
Based on this sample, you don't pay merely above average pitchers for their projection in years 4-5. It could be a relatively unhappy sample, but I'm betting that most above averageish pitchers don't project to do much four years out.
These pitchers averaged 9 WAR, 110 ERA+, and 598 IP
In year 4, these pitchers averages 111 IP with a 91 ERA+ for an average of 0.5 WAR per pitcher-season.
In year 5, these pitchers averaged 92 IP, 93 ERA+, 0.3 WAR. The
It's better to build a group where the members are within a reasonable deviation of Sanchez in value, i.e. WAR
And it's better to use medians or break into sub groups here, since they lend themselves better to estimating the value of logical choices.
If the approach was more "Now that the Tigers have a relative surplus of SP, maybe they could use Pocello as a trade chit to shore up SS, 4th OF, or the bullpen
Trading Porcello for Luke Gregerson, Alexi Amarista and Will Venable or the equivalent seems a worse idea than keeping him and signing Soriano.
That said, I think KT/Arb didn't really follow what I did.
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