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Sabathia: Assume that he's not a true 98 ERA+ pitcher and forget his drop in velocity, but how do you ignore that over the past six weeks his ERA is 4.92?
This is what drive me nuts about Andy: He thinks he's rooting for a terrible team, despite the fact that they're above .500 at the halfway point, coming off a 95-win season. On behalf of all the Rays, Orioles, Jays, Royals, Twins, Indians, White Sox, Mariners, A's, Marlins, Mets, Pirates, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Padres, Rockies and Diamondbacks fans out there, let me just say: You have no idea what it's like to root for a terrible team.
This is what drive me nuts about Andy: He thinks he's rooting for a terrible team, despite the fact that they're above .500 at the halfway point, coming off a 95-win season.
This is a roster with three everyday players with an OPS+ over 100, and one starting pitcher with an ERA+ over 100. And one of those four players (Hafner) has had an OPS of .580 since the first of May.
It isn't very complicated. This is a terrible team that's going downhill fast, and to try to plug it up for the short run is just throwing good money after bad. Their current 42-38 record is nothing more than the view of a man who's jumped off of the Empire State building and is passing the 55th floor on his way down to the sidewalk. It's been a great run, but it's time to face the facts and start rebuilding from the ground up.
But I can't think of a single team with an immoveable "elder statesman" like the Yankees and Rivera right now.
Trying to be objective about it, I'd say he's right; it's time to rebuild.
This team for all the world looks like a .400 team, and I'd be surprised if they play better than .400 from here to the end, my over under for them is 75 wins, only because they have 42 wins in the bank already
Five-man infield for the Sox in the 12th.
You guys keep proving my point. They look like a .400 team to Yankee fans, because Yankee fans have no idea what a real .400 team looks like.
In fairness they have a PR that puts them at 39-42 but a very good pitching staff and a lousy hitting team locking in at 82-85 wins seems reasonable.
Forget the team name, look at the everyday lineup,
Chris Stewart and Austin Romine catching
36 year old Lyle Overbay at 1B
Jason Nix and Ed Nunez at SS
David Adams at 3b
Vernon Wells in left
39 year old Ichiro! in right (working on 3rd straight sub 100 OPS+)
sure Robbie Cano has been Robbie Cano and Gardner has been terrific
but jeesh, you cannot objectively look at that and say that is NOT a bad team.
These are the effing Yankees, they don't HAVE to rebuild, just effing whip out the pocket book and reload.
Nunez has been hurt and out of the lineup for almost two months.
That was the point of my post up there somewhere: there has to be something to buy with your money. Name the FA that is a Yankee-quality 3B, 1B, SS, CF.
They look like a .400 team to Yankee fans, because Yankee fans have no idea what a real .400 team looks like.
And of course it ignores the good rotation
Sure, but that ignores that Granderson, Teixeira, Jeter, ARod and Youkilis were all expected to contribute at least half a season
There has been a bizarre belief among NYC's MSM that Nunez was a good MLB hitter who was being blocked (through no fault of his own) by a future HOFer
Teix was basically a league average [starting 1b} anyway
They need AROD to be a great player, no one thinks he would have been/ will be again (though his reanimated corpse has to be an improvement over the wretched bag of suck that has been playing 3B in the Bronx this year)
Jeter is a range challenged 39 year old SS, I think even rabid Jeter fans were/are cringing at the thought of how he will play SS in the future.
Teix was basically a league average [starting 1b} anyway
That's not true.
Well, at least we've made a partial progression in reality checking at this point, since that rotation been downgraded from "very good" to just "good" within the matter of a few short hours.
Well, at least we've made a partial progression in reality checking at this point, since that rotation been downgraded from "very good" to just "good" within the matter of a few short hours. (smile)
To get down to cases, Jeter is never going to recover his full lateral range, which was bad enough to begin with.
Rk Year #Matching
1 2009 16
2 1999 14
3 1998 14
4 2008 13
5 2006 13
6 2002 13
7 2010 12
8 2001 12
9 2013 11
10 2011 11
11 2005 11
12 2000 11
13 2007 10
14 2004 9
15 2012 8
16 2003 8
The calculus changes because of who the franchise is. Do they "owe" the fans a chance for Rod/Jeter/Granderson to get hot for two weeks in October? How will a selloff be seen by Bronx partisans? Will attendance crater if they do?
The Yankees are fourth in the league in run prevention, and fourth from the bottom in run scoring. That looks like a .500 team to me.
For single seasons, From 1998 to 2013, Played 50% of games at 1B, (requiring onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=120 and Qualified for league batting title), sorted by greatest number of players matching criteria in a single season
Well, the "very good" didn't come from me. But in fairness, the OP was referring to the whole pitching staff, not the rotation. Their pitching staff has a 106 ERA+, with an underperforming CC. Whether that qualifies "very good" or "good"... I'll let other people split those hairs. I'll stand by good rotation and great bullpen as my qualifiers.
How many 1Bs "qualify" for the batting title each year?
My "definition" of "starting 1Bs" is the 30 1Bs each year with the most PAs (by #30 you have a guy with around 350 PAs most years), the 15th % 16th guys in OPS+ are usually around 115-120
the mean OPS+ for all 1Bs is generally around 110-115.
If they don't sell off, and the Red Sox make the playoffs in 2013 while the Yankees don't, there will be incessant chatter among Yankees fans to suggest the Yankees should have sold off in 2013 like Boston did in 2012*. And if the Yankees return in 2014 with largely the same roster** and the same problems, Yankees fans will expect the same results.
Oddly, the return of Cervelli is to be looked forward to as well.
#119 It's really, really hard to buy a contending team from the best of what's available in any given year. Teams that have stayed good over the long run always had a solid core that they could add to.
Would any franchise's fanbase likely react as loudly/boisterously as the Yankees' would if they somehow traded Rivera?
1. If the Yankees choose not to sell off and rebuild, how desperate will they be to sign Cano?
2. If the Yankees are serious about getting under the cap, can they afford to sign Cano AND to augment their roster to a competitive level for 2014?
How much will Boras be able to extract from them in that case?
Condescension aside, Sabathia's career ERA is 3.53. His aforementioned ERA for the last 6 weeks is 4.92. The approximate midway point between those two numbers is 4.22. By the end of the season, where do you think he's going to wind up, closer to 3.53 or to 4.92? Since his overall 2013 ERA is 4.15, you're getting a running head start if you choose the under.
And BTW I'm not claiming to know the answer one way or the other. I'm only saying that neither do you, which is why I put my question in the form of....a question.
That is indeed odd; the idea that Cervelli has suddenly turned into a power hitter based on 60 PA is bizarre. His next 60 PA will likely remind people that he is a pumpkin.
The Yanks' projected record according to coolstandings is 79.6 - 82.4. If anyone, including Tom and/or FancyPants, wants to take the over on that, please let me know.
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